The TikTok ban was just passed by the House, Here’s What Could Happen Next

Users of TikTok could find the social media site under a new owner or, though it would not happen right away, be banned from the U.S.

The House of Representatives passed a bill on Saturday that will prevent TikTok’s owner in China from being able to operate the platform in the U.S. if they don’t sell their stake within one year. Next, the bill is headed to the Senate where, thanks to its bipartisan backing, it’s expected to be passed.

TikTok is under scrutiny for its addictive videos that are constantly scrolling, but also because of its Chinese owner ByteDance. This has led to concerns from lawmakers and security professionals that China could access TikTok’s data on millions of U.S. customers.

Eurasia Group’s director Clayton Allen noted that TikTok asked users to reach out to their legislators to oppose the passage of this bill. However, it appears as though they have not been able to influence Washington, D.C., in terms of public opinion.

Last week, TikTok sent push notifications to its users, urging them to contact their legislators, saying the bill “could take away your CONSTITUTIONAL right to access TikTok.”

Allen, a CBS MoneyWatch reporter said: “It is a cheap exercise as long as you can access the users.” It seems to have backfired.

Some legislators argued TikTok’s capability to send mass push notifications to users, including many minors, highlighted the dangers of the app.

TikTok, in a press release, said that it was “unfortunate,” that legislators are using “important foreign and humanitarian aid to again jam through a ban bill, which would tramp the rights to free speech of 170 million Americans, destroy 7 million businesses and shut down a platform, that contributes to the U.S. economic system, $24 billion annually.”

Here’s what to know about what could happen next to the TikTok ban.

When will the Senate vote on the TikTok bill?

CBS News congressional reporter Scott MacFarlane said that the Senate could vote on the bill Wednesday.

President Joe Biden indicated that he would sign this bill. It is focused primarily on foreign aid for Ukraine and Israel.

Why does Congress want to ban TikTok?

ByteDance is being asked by lawmakers to sell their stake in TikTok. The legislation will ban social media apps in the U.S. if there is no deal.

The company’s connections in China are causing lawmakers to be increasingly worried. They fear that ByteDance and TikTok may share information about U.S. citizens with China’s autocratic government.

Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat Senator, stated on CBS “Face the Nation” on Sunday that “the idea we would give the Communist Party such a powerful propaganda tool as well as the capability to scrape the data of 170 million Americans, is a risk for national security.”

What is the timeline for a possible TikTok sale or shutdown?

According to an earlier version of the bill, if passed, it would allow TikTok owners to sell the app within nine months, and there is the possibility for a three-month additional grace period.

Allen, of Eurasia Group, noted that the mark would be reached in late-mid January. This could coincide with the U.S. Presidential Inauguration. The analyst said that if former president Donald Trump were to win in November, it is possible he would take a new approach with TikTok.

Allen stated that “this might be a matter for the next government.” Looking at the wording of the bill I am not certain that Trump will be bound by what Biden wants. He could use this as leverage against China.

If TikTok is sold, who might buy it?

According to Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, Microsoft, Oracle or private equity firms are likely bidders.

Ives believes that ByteDance is unlikely to be able to sell TikTok if it had its core algorithms. This software, which provides users with video recommendations based on viewing and interest habits, is not likely to succeed.

Ives stated in a recent research report that “the value of TikTok will change dramatically without the algorithms. This makes the sale/divestiture/distribution of TikTok an extremely complex undertaking, and many strategic/financial buyers are eagerly awaiting the start of this process.”

Could other social media platforms benefit from the bill?

Ives said that rivals such as Meta would benefit if the bill became law.

Wedbush estimated that approximately 60% of TikTok’s users would switch to Meta Instagram or Facebook, should TikTok go dark in the U.S. Google also would benefit from this situation.