The TikTok ban was just passed by the House, Here’s What Could Happen Next
The future of TikTok, the immensely popular social media platform, is growing increasingly uncertain as the U.S. government ramps up efforts to address concerns related to its Chinese ownership and potential national security risks.
On Saturday, the House of Representatives passed a bill that would force TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, to sell its stake in the platform within one year if it wants to continue operating in the United States. This bipartisan legislation now heads to the Senate, where it is expected to pass and then be signed into law by President Joe Biden.
This push to either ban TikTok or compel a sale reflects mounting anxiety among U.S. lawmakers and security experts over the app’s Chinese ownership, coupled with fears that the Chinese government could gain access to the data of millions of American users.
Addictive by Design, Concerning by Association
TikTok has faced criticism not only for its addictive, endlessly scrolling video format but also for its ties to China. ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company, is based in China, sparking concerns that the Chinese government could force the company to share user data or manipulate the platform for propaganda or surveillance purposes.
These worries have spurred a bipartisan effort in Congress to take action against TikTok. Clayton Allen, director of Eurasia Group, noted that TikTok has tried to rally its users to oppose the bill, sending push notifications urging them to contact their legislators. However, these efforts appear to have had little impact on the political dynamics in Washington, D.C.
Some legislators have expressed alarm over TikTok’s ability to send mass push notifications to its user base, including many minors, highlighting the platform’s potential dangers. They argue that this feature demonstrates TikTok’s significant influence over its users, which could be exploited for harmful purposes.
In response to the proposed legislation, TikTok has argued that it threatens the free speech rights of 170 million Americans, risks destroying 7 million businesses, and could shut down a platform that contributes $24 billion annually to the U.S. economy. Despite these assertions, there is a growing bipartisan consensus in Congress that action is needed to mitigate the perceived national security risks posed by TikTok.
Navigating the Legislative Terrain
The Senate is expected to vote on the TikTok bill as soon as Wednesday, and President Biden has indicated that he would sign it into law. The bill is primarily focused on foreign aid for Ukraine and Israel, with the TikTok provisions included as an add-on.
Earlier versions of the bill proposed a nine-month deadline for TikTok’s owners to sell their stake, with a potential three-month extension. This timeline could align with the U.S. presidential inauguration in January 2025, raising the possibility that a change in administration could lead to a different approach to the TikTok issue.
Clayton Allen of Eurasia Group suggested that the bill’s language may not necessarily bind a future administration, potentially allowing a new president, such as Donald Trump if re-elected, to use the TikTok situation as leverage against China.
Potential Buyers and the Complexities Ahead
If TikTok is forced to sell its U.S. operations, potential buyers might include tech giants like Microsoft and Oracle, as well as private equity firms. However, selling TikTok is complicated by its reliance on core algorithms that deliver personalized video recommendations to users based on their viewing habits.
Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, believes that ByteDance could struggle to sell TikTok without its algorithms, which are central to the platform’s value. Ives pointed out that “the value of TikTok will change dramatically without the algorithms,” making the sale or divestiture of TikTok an intricate process that many potential buyers are eagerly watching.
The potential loss of TikTok’s algorithms would pose a significant challenge for any buyer, as these recommendation systems are key to the platform’s success and user engagement.
Implications for Competitors and the Tech Ecosystem
A TikTok ban or sale could have ripple effects across the social media landscape and the broader tech ecosystem.
Wedbush Securities analysts believe that TikTok’s competitors, such as Meta’s Instagram and Facebook, could see significant gains if TikTok were to disappear from the U.S. market. The firm estimates that around 60% of TikTok’s users could migrate to these competing platforms if TikTok were to be banned.
Tech giants like Google might also benefit from the disruption, as users look for alternative platforms for social media and content consumption.
TikTok’s potential exit from the U.S. market would represent a major shift in the social media landscape, creating both opportunities and challenges for other players in the industry.
Balancing National Security and Free Speech
The debate over TikTok’s future in the United States underscores the delicate balance between national security concerns and the protection of free speech and digital rights.
Proponents of the TikTok ban argue that the app’s Chinese ownership and potential data-sharing with the Chinese government pose a serious threat to the privacy and security of American users. Senator Mark Warner, a Democrat from Virginia, has stated that “the idea we would give the Communist Party such a powerful propaganda tool as well as the capability to scrape the data of 170 million Americans is a risk for national security.”
On the other hand, opponents of the ban contend that outlawing TikTok would infringe on the constitutional rights of millions of Americans who use the platform for self-expression, entertainment, and business promotion. TikTok’s assertion that the bill would “trample the rights to free speech of 170 million Americans” reflects this concern.
As the debate continues, policymakers will need to carefully consider the national security implications of TikTok’s presence in the U.S. against the potential impact on digital rights and the broader tech ecosystem. The rapidly evolving nature of social media and emerging technologies further complicates this challenge.
The Future of TikTok and Broader Implications
The fate of TikTok in the United States remains uncertain, with the proposed legislation advancing through Congress and the potential for a change in administration in 2025 adding complexity to the situation.
If a TikTok ban or sale goes ahead, it would mark a significant change in the social media landscape, potentially opening up opportunities for competitors and disrupting the broader tech ecosystem. However, the implications extend beyond business; the debate also highlights the delicate balance between national security concerns and the protection of digital rights and free speech.
As the TikTok saga unfolds, policymakers, tech companies, and the public will be closely watching how the situation resolves and what it means for the future of social media, data privacy, and U.S.-China relations in the digital age.